[PCA] ARTICLE: Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

[De Angelis, Patricia]

Interesting article...surveys and re-surveys are important - as are
consolidating and assessing the big picture from the survey data.

I would be interested to know more about how folks address the issue of
orchid dormancy - esp because it could influence habitat
management/conservation - if folks think a plant is gone, then they might
move ahead with alteration/destruction of the habitat.

It is my impression that dormancy is a life strategy (not necessarily
end-of-life) - based on comments/info from Doug Gill having observed
several populations of pink lady's slipper for many, many years...in fact,
here is an article that says just that: "According to Dr. Gill, the pink
lady’s slippers are unusual in that the plant can go dormant for up to, and
possibly more than, 20 years."
https://ourstoriesandperspectives.com/2016/05/03/delicate-and-refined-an-orchid/


Welcome any info on how land managers are or could be taking this into
account.

Patricia S. De Angelis, Ph.D.

Botanist, Division of Scientific Authority

US Fish & Wildlife Service

5275 Leesburg Pike, MS: IA

Falls Church, VA 22041-3803

703-358-1708 x 1753

703-358-2276 (FAX)


Let’s put the right seed, in the right place, at the right time!

-National Seed Strategy
<https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/national-seed-strategy>


---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Prescott, Leah <lprescott at blm.gov>
Date: Mon, Oct 21, 2019 at 3:32 PM
Subject: [PCA] ARTICLE: Population extinctions driven by climate change,
population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases
inaccurate
To: listserv <native-plants at lists.plantconservation.org>


From: PLOS ONE
By: Thomas N. Kaye, Matt A. Bahm,  Andrea S. Thorpe, Erin C. Gray, Ian
Pfingsten, Chelsea Waddell
October 17, 2019

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global
phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases
of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk
taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and
dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and
climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many
populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread
orchid, *Cypripedium fasciculatum* (clustered lady’s slipper), to model
population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time
between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively
associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with
time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations
as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to
estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California
and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in
databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware
that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is
potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to
document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports
of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas
with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.

Link to full article:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210378
Link to blog post:
https://appliedeco.org/rare-orchid-fading-fast-and-climate-change-may-be-part-of-the-problem/


-- 
Leah Prescott
Seeds of Success
National Collection Curator (Contractor)
202-912-7232

Seeds of Success
<https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/native-plant-and-seed-material-development/collection>
National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration
<https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/national-seed-strategy>
Plant Conservation Alliance <http://www.plantconservationalliance.org/>
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