[PCA] ARTICLE: Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

Wed Oct 23 10:43:11 CDT 2019

This is an excellent question and not just with orchids (observations of Calochortus nuttallii and therefore no doubt other Calochorti suggest that it can lay dormant for decades).

Re: Cypripediums,  there are estimates of overall longevity of "clumps" in the European Cypripredium calceolus (which we can assume applies to the C. parviflorum complex in the US and others)  of well over 100 years:

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2005.01010.x

Rare plant survey protocols typically don't take plant dormancy (nor of seeds) into account before allowing disturbance.

Tony Frates/Utah Native Plant Society

----- Original Message -----
From: "De Angelis, Patricia" <patricia_deangelis at fws.gov>
To: listserv <native-plants at lists.plantconservation.org>
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2019 09:59:14 -0400
Subject: Re: [PCA] ARTICLE: Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

> Interesting article...surveys and re-surveys are important - as are
> consolidating and assessing the big picture from the survey data.
> 
> I would be interested to know more about how folks address the issue of
> orchid dormancy - esp because it could influence habitat
> management/conservation - if folks think a plant is gone, then they might
> move ahead with alteration/destruction of the habitat.
> 
> It is my impression that dormancy is a life strategy (not necessarily
> end-of-life) - based on comments/info from Doug Gill having observed
> several populations of pink lady's slipper for many, many years...in fact,
> here is an article that says just that: "According to Dr. Gill, the pink
> lady’s slippers are unusual in that the plant can go dormant for up to, and
> possibly more than, 20 years."
> https://ourstoriesandperspectives.com/2016/05/03/delicate-and-refined-an-orchid/
> 
> 
> Welcome any info on how land managers are or could be taking this into
> account.
> 
> Patricia S. De Angelis, Ph.D.
> 
> Botanist, Division of Scientific Authority
> 
> US Fish & Wildlife Service
> 
> 5275 Leesburg Pike, MS: IA
> 
> Falls Church, VA 22041-3803
> 
> 703-358-1708 x 1753
> 
> 703-358-2276 (FAX)
> 
> 
> Let’s put the right seed, in the right place, at the right time!
> 
> -National Seed Strategy
> <https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/national-seed-strategy>
> 
> 
> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> From: Prescott, Leah <lprescott at blm.gov>
> Date: Mon, Oct 21, 2019 at 3:32 PM
> Subject: [PCA] ARTICLE: Population extinctions driven by climate change,
> population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases
> inaccurate
> To: listserv <native-plants at lists.plantconservation.org>
> 
> 
> From: PLOS ONE
> By: Thomas N. Kaye, Matt A. Bahm,  Andrea S. Thorpe, Erin C. Gray, Ian
> Pfingsten, Chelsea Waddell
> October 17, 2019
> 
> Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global
> phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases
> of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk
> taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and
> dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and
> climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many
> populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread
> orchid, *Cypripedium fasciculatum* (clustered lady’s slipper), to model
> population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time
> between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively
> associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with
> time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations
> as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to
> estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California
> and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in
> databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware
> that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is
> potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to
> document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports
> of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas
> with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.
> 
> Link to full article:
> https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210378
> Link to blog post:
> https://appliedeco.org/rare-orchid-fading-fast-and-climate-change-may-be-part-of-the-problem/
> 
> 
> -- 
> Leah Prescott
> Seeds of Success
> National Collection Curator (Contractor)
> 202-912-7232
> 
> Seeds of Success
> <https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/native-plant-and-seed-material-development/collection>
> National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration
> <https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/national-seed-strategy>
> Plant Conservation Alliance <http://www.plantconservationalliance.org/>
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