[PCA] ARTICLE: Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

[Prescott, Leah]

From: PLOS ONE
By: Thomas N. Kaye, Matt A. Bahm,  Andrea S. Thorpe, Erin C. Gray, Ian
Pfingsten, Chelsea Waddell
October 17, 2019

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global
phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases
of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk
taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and
dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and
climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many
populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread
orchid, *Cypripedium fasciculatum* (clustered lady’s slipper), to model
population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time
between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively
associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with
time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations
as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to
estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California
and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in
databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware
that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is
potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to
document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports
of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas
with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.

Link to full article:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210378
Link to blog post:
https://appliedeco.org/rare-orchid-fading-fast-and-climate-change-may-be-part-of-the-problem/


-- 
Leah Prescott
Seeds of Success
National Collection Curator (Contractor)
202-912-7232

Seeds of Success
<https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/native-plant-and-seed-material-development/collection>
National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration
<https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/native-plant-communities/national-seed-strategy>
Plant Conservation Alliance <http://www.plantconservationalliance.org/>
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