[PCA] Future changes in fire weather, spring droughts, and false springs across U.S. National Forests and Grasslands

De Angelis, Patricia patricia_deangelis at fws.gov
Thu May 16 11:43:51 CDT 2019


This research suggests an increase in weather extremes in our National
Forests.

Accepted article:*
FUTURE CHANGES IN FIRE WEATHER, SPRING DROUGHTS, AND FALSE SPRINGS ACROSS
U.S. NATIONAL FORESTS AND GRASSLANDS
By
Sebastián Martinuzzi  Andrew J. Allstadt  Anna M. Pidgeon  Curtis H.
Flather  W. Matt Jolly  Volker C. Radeloff
13 April 2019
in
Ecological Applications

ABSTRACT: Public lands provide many ecosystem services and support diverse
plant and animal communities. In order to provide these benefits in the
future, land managers and policy makers need information about future
climate change and its potential effects. In particular, weather extremes
are key drivers of wildfires, droughts, and false springs, which in turn
can have large impacts on ecosystems. However, information on future
changes in weather extremes on public lands is lacking. Our goal was to
compare historical (1950‐2005) and projected mid‐century (2041‐2070)
changes in weather extremes (fire weather, spring droughts, and false
springs) on public lands. This case study looked at the lands managed by
the U.S. Forest Service across the conterminous United States including 501
ranger district units. We analyzed downscaled projections of daily records
from 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 General Circulation Models
for two climate scenarios, with either medium‐low or high CO2‐equivalent
concentration (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). For each ranger district, we estimated:
(i) fire potential, using the Keetch‐Byram Drought Index; (ii) frequency of
spring droughts, using the Standardized Precipitation Index; and (iii)
frequency of false springs, using the extended Spring Indices. We found
that future climates could substantially alter weather conditions across
Forest Service lands. Under the two climate scenarios, increases in
wildfire potential, spring droughts, and false springs were projected in
32%–72%, 28%–29%, and 13%–16% of all ranger districts, respectively.
Moreover, a substantial number of ranger districts (17%‐30%), especially in
the Southwestern, Pacific Southwest, and Rocky Mountain regions, were
projected to see increases in more than one type of weather extreme, which
may require special management attention. We suggest that future changes in
weather extremes could threaten the ability of public lands to provide
ecosystem services and ecological benefits to society. Overall, our results
highlight the value of spatially‐explicit weather projections to assess
future changes in key weather extremes for land managers and policy makers.

*This article is protected by copyright. Accepted, unedited articles
published online and citable.

More: 10.1002/eap.1904
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