[PCA] FIRE 07 Climate change Re: NEWS: Climate change likely to increase fires

[Addsum-Tony Frates]

Good points, yes, and sure, we always need more information, and yes 
there have been sensationalized articles, however, the one that seems 
to be the subject of this discussion, i.e.:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071012/ap_on_sc/wildfires_climate_change

does not appear to one of them.   Jayne Belnap is a very well 
respected scientist and one of the foremost experts in biological 
crusts aka microbiotic soils  (and I've clipped in a few more 
paragraphs from the recent article below).   Google her.    We should 
be listening to what she is saying and not simply saying that we need 
more information.   There are no sweeping generalizations being made 
here.   No decisions are made with perfect information, ever.   We're 
still waiting for the grazing and OHV studies too, but meanwhile, 
land managers and others must make decisions based on the best 
available information and act (and of course refine those actions as 
additional information beomes available).   Otherwise, it will be too 
late.


Tony Frates



More from the 10/11/07 AP article above:

Ecologist Jayne Belnap told a meeting of the public lands and forests 
committee that some climate change models predict average temperature 
increases of up to 11 degrees by the end of the century, as well as 
increases in precipitation and carbon dioxide levels. The combination 
means more cheatgrass and potentially more wildfires.

There's a lot of reason to expect (wildfires) will increase," Belnap 
told the subcommittee meeting in Las Vegas. "The biggest reason is 
we'll have drier soil, we'll have drier fuels. ... most climate 
models would project that they will increase."







To:             	apwg at lists.plantconservation.org,
	native-plants at lists.plantconservation.org, rwg at lists.plantconservation.org
From:           	Patricia_DeAngelis at fws.gov
Date sent:      	Mon, 15 Oct 2007 11:28:31 -0400
Subject:        	Re: [PCA] FIRE 07 Climate change Re: NEWS: Climate change likely to
	increase fires

> It's great to see this issue getting more press.  But, I also see where 
> Wayne is coming from.
> 
> The article below mentions two conditions that will contribute to the 
> proliferation of invasives in response to global climate change:
> fires deposit nutrients into the soil that encourage the growth of 
> cheatgrass 
> increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, typically associated with climate 
> changes, encourages the growth of tough cheatgrass 
> 
> I just attended a conference two weeks ago on global climate change and 
> the effect on local flora in the Appalachians of Maryland and West 
> Virginia.  One of the speakers mentioned that recent research was 
> suggesting that invasives would take off with global climate change - that 
> the hotter, drier conditions will favor them.  He pointed out that this is 
> not necessarily true.  Microstegium (Japanese stiltgrass), for instance, 
> which is plaguing the Appalachians is not good at getting into the drier 
> sites. 
> 
> So, although I am pleased at the increased attention to this issue, I 
> think Wayne's point is well taken.  As plant scientists, it's important 
> for us to resist the urge to put specific situations into a general 
> "Inbox."  Different species will react differently in different 
> environments.  It's our job to explore the possibilities and to help 
> others understand them without making sweeping generalizations.
> 
> Patricia S. De Angelis, Ph.D.
> Botanist - Division of Scientific Authority
> Chair - Plant Conservation Alliance - Medicinal Plant Working Group
> US Fish & Wildlife Service
> 4401 N. Fairfax Dr., Suite 110
> Arlington, VA  22203
> 703-358-1708 x1753
> FAX: 703-358-2276
> Working for the conservation and sustainable use of our green natural 
> resources.
> <www.nps.gov/plants/medicinal>
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wayne Tyson <landrest at cox.net> 
> Sent by: rwg-bounces at lists.plantconservation.org
> 10/12/2007 11:02 PM
> 
> To
> Olivia Kwong <plant at plantconservation.org>, 
> native-plants at lists.plantconservation.org, 
> apwg at lists.plantconservation.org, rwg at lists.plantconservation.org
> cc
> 
> Subject
> [RWG] FIRE 07 Climate change Re: NEWS: Climate change likely to increase 
> fires
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Invasive plants like the Sahara mustard are quite likely to be a factor in 
> wildfires, as they fill spaces between widely-scattered shrubs, and 
> climate change will no doubt affect fire behavior, but I yearn for more 
> evidence and less opinion and conjecture regarding such sweeping 
> conclusions.  It makes for good press, but what is needed is good research 
> and solid data.  Fires have, and will continue to be, a factor in Great 
> Basin ecosystems, but the real question is what precisely is the 
> connection between the data and the conclusions, and what is the marginal 
> difference.  Sensationalism destroys credibility, and "we" need 
> credibility more than ever in these truly pivotal times. 
> 
> WT
> 
> At 12:53 PM 10/12/2007, Olivia Kwong wrote:
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071012/ap_on_sc/wildfires_climate_change 
> 
> Climate change likely to increase fires
> 
> By KATHLEEN HENNESSEY, Associated Press Writer Thu Oct 11, 8:26 PM ET
> 
> LAS VEGAS - Climate change is likely to increase the number of wildfires 
> fueled by invasive weeds that are spreading throughout the Great Basin, 
> researchers told a U.S. Senate subcommittee Thursday.
> 
> See the link above for the full article text.
> 
> 
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